IHS Markit’s Agribusiness Intelligence argued that recovery in processing production had led to lower market prices.
It said that production had risen in Florida and Brazil, but falling demand in major markets such as the US and Europe had brought the concentrate orange juice (FCOJ) price down by US$600/tonne in a year.
Brazil was no longer short of orange juice, with a forecast 2019/20 orange crop of 388 million boxes, it revealed.
On top of this, IHS Markit predicted that Brazilian orange juice prices were set to rise in late 2020, due to Europe needing to rebuild its stocks. It also said there were early indications of a potentially poor 2020/21 harvest, due to hot weather.
However, in contrast, NFC (not from concentrate) prices have risen in the US, but sales have continued to fall. IHS Markit said that Western consumers were “falling out of love” with orange juice and pointed to its “still leery” sugar content as a potential reason.
“The weather conditions in Brazil may also mean that total production will be down to 240 million boxes, although it is a little too early to tell precisely,” said Neil Murray, head of processed commodities, IHS Markit’s Agribusiness Intelligence.
“With 388m boxes for Brazil’s 2019/20 harvest, there is plenty of orange juice around right now, but demand remains stagnant or is even shrinking in major markets. European imports are 25% up on last season’s, with nearly 285,000 tonnes of FCOJ shipped from Brazil between July and October 2019, but that is largely because it is far cheaper to store orange juice in Europe than in South America. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out in 2020.”