Earlier this month, environment secretary Angela Eagle said something the industry has known for years: that the supply of food has often been taken for granted.
“Because we’ve been so good at it, it has kind of faded into the background and everyone assumes it will always continue the way it always has,” she told attendees at the NFU’s Back British Farming Day 2026 reception.
Workshop with experts on resilience
October 2026 Business Leaders' Forum to focus on resilience - for more information and to book your tickets, click here.
But simply put, it can’t continue the way it always has. Things are changing – and we need to change with it. While some may point to previous moments in history where ‘things have been worse’ (e.g. the 1970s great inflation), what has become abundantly clear is that we only have a finite number of resources left. If we don’t change things and soon, these resources are going to dwindle to the point of no return.
One industry source I spoke who wished to remain anonymous already believes it’s too late and that we will see devastating impacts on society. Critical resources are becoming an increasingly important consideration in international affairs, they added.
Indeed, while conflicts and territorial disputes are often driven by a mix of historical, political and economic factors, concerns over long-term access to water, energy and fertile land are likely playing a role too.
“How do you achieve / maintain power? By having a stranglehold on resources,” they pointed out. “It’s going to become increasingly about a carve up [of resources].”
In fact, on this trajectory, they paint a rather bleak picture for the next 50 years: “It’s going to become increasingly volatile, we’re going to see increasing waves of migration because more and more of the planet will become effectively uninhabitable for food production, etc. There’ll be war, and part of those wars will also be about resource and territory.”
Regardless as to whether the above transpires, it’s evident that the UK needs a plan to shore up food security – and that will require a clear, well-considered food strategy and a proper crisis plan that includes food. Sweden has already distributed an official emergency preparedness guide to all households entitled, ‘If Crisis or War Comes’, which offers advice on shelter and recommends stockpiling.
While Eagle has said the UK should be looking to get more prepared in the face of the super El Nino, we are yet to see a similar pamphlet mailed around. Our mantra may well be ‘keep calm and carry on’, but it might be a good idea for us to get our ducks in a row…just in case. Last time we were caught unawares, it was toilet roll, next time it could be something much worse.
If something happened tomorrow – nationwide power outages, a major cyberattack, just how prepared would businesses and the everyday UK household be?
Recent Lumina Intelligence research showed that while the industry isn’t short on conviction about climate resilience, acting on it remains a challenge.
Its report ‘Climate-Smart Resilience’ published in August, revealed that 54% of respondents say that climate resilience is either ‘very important’ or ‘extremely important’ to their company, yet just 6% have embedded in their corporate strategy.
The risk posed to supply chains is a shared concern: supply chain resilience is the most important strategic issue for the next five years (72%), supply chain disruption is the most-cited threat (52%), and supply chain complexity is a top-cited barrier to scaling (36%).
It’s true that a food strategy is in the works, with an advisory board put together that comprises several stakeholders across industry and government. One would hope this helps to relieve some of these concerns and plug some major gaps we have. And while not much is revealed within the meeting notes, resilience and food security appear to be a key focus.
Still, there’s been no real timeline on when this will emerge.
What do we need from a food strategy?
Speaking with Dr Clive Black, vice chairman of Shore Capital, for such a strategy to work and truly build in resilience, it will need to embrace several areas which currently sit across siloed departments. Moreover, food will need to be taken much more seriously by the government.
“The food system is the biggest industrial unit of the UK, which is why it’s so distressing that the government treats it with such disinterest and sort of just palms it off all the time,” he said.
“Well, we’re paying the price of that now because there is a concern in a more volatile, uncertain and dangerous world about ultimately where we get our food from. We’re not a million miles away from being a situation where the UK is actually vulnerable.”
Despite his warning, Black is cautiously optimistic about Burnham’s reign but says “his actions will be more important than his words”.
Speaking more directly on Burnham’s plans, he said: “The devolution of funding potentially creates an opportunity for districts which have got a high agri-food participation to receive more money or resource that can be focused on the priorities of agri-food.
“[Burnham] has spoken of agri-food resilience as a priority alongside defence. And it would be encouraging if that devolution and better resources could actually start to work its way into supporting a credible medium to long-term food system.”
He continued: “Burnham has also talked about utilities being arenas where private capital on its own doesn’t work and where he’d like to see more public ownership. I don’t think most companies mind too much from a philosophical perspective where their energy and water come from, but they do need lower cost energy, more availability of it, and they need better visibility around water.”
A minister for food
For Black, what we need now is a minister for food – someone who can oversee a broader strategy that pulls relevant yet disconnected threads together, including energy, soil, innovation, business, and water.
He explained that a minister for food, in effect, could bring the departments that look after these areas together, overseen by a broader strategy.
From there, the focus should be on ensuring we have access to people and the right skills to produce more food, more sustainably and ethically (animal and people welfare). At the same time, firms need to be looking at where they should be investing.
“All the things I’ve mentioned are pretty important, but they [industry] also need visibility around an efficient planning process that we just don’t have,” Black said.
“Planning that’s going to be efficient, quick, decisive, proper. That in itself would probably fuel increased investment [into the UK].”
This also links back to skills – which are severely lacking in the UK. Take the pandemic as an example, which made it very clear just how dependent we are on foreign engineering expertise. Manufacturers saw long delays for parts and when they did arrive in the UK, there weren’t enough mechanical engineers to install it.
On this note, Black added: “To what extent could we actually make the UK a place for innovation? Not just in terms of food production systems, but maybe even process technology and engineering can start to come into this country. To what extent can we create a British food system that is so effective in its agronomic and manufacturing capabilities, we actually start to export ideas rather than be a recipient of it.
“So my sort of framework for improving resilience starts at the top end with the minister of the food system, whose work embraces the soil strategy, because soil is relevant to pastoral and arable farming; who works with the Department for Education and Department for Business around the development of human and financial and manufacturing capital; who works on behalf of the industry to drive a fit for purpose planning system,” he summarised.
Rod Addy, director general at the Provision Trade Federation, agrees with Black’s sentiments: “The challenge is that government operates in silos and so it has pockets of little groups working on different things. There isn’t that coordination that joins water, energy, planning for food.
“There’s a level of coordination that’s desperately needed. Without that coordination, you’re going to have big holes in any sort of joined up plan to keep the food industry working, particularly the processing sector, which is less visible than retail and farming. And it’s no good keeping farming going and keeping retail going if processors can’t produce the product.”
For Addy, the industry has been a victim of its own success, just about pulling together during Covid to keep the nation fed which has, in turn, led the government to believe it can manage.
But as the PTF boss warns: “That would be a gross miscalculation, particularly in the world that we now inhabit with all the volatility that we face.”
Like Black, Addy believes the government needs to change the way it works to ensure interconnected issues are not managed in silos. And while we wait for that to happen, we must take every opportunity to collaborate.
I know people have been saying that for years, but people must come together.
Rod Addy, director general, Provision Trade Federation
And yes, collaboration in the industry is happening, but it needs to happen more frequently. It’s understandable that businesses want to keep a competitive edge, but we’re in a situation where ‘going solo’ is no longer an option.
Addy agreed: “If you’re in a situation where there’s so much volatility and so many challenges, it becomes a law of diminishing returns to continue going it alone without relying on other people around you. If you try and go it alone there’s a greater chance of you hitting a big wave and sinking.”
Collaboration is what Food Manufacture’s Business Leaders’ Forum was founded upon and this continues to be a key part of what the event offers.
For our next session, we’ll be focused on resilience in the squeezed middle. Chaired by industry veteran and IFST president, Chris Gilbert-Wood, whose career includes leading roles at M&S and 2 Sisters.
We’ll also be welcoming keynotes from Prof Tim Lang – one of the UK’s leading food policy experts; Paul Geary, former Morrisons Trading Director; and insight expert, Flora Zwolinski from Lumina Intelligence. Alongside their exclusive presentations, these three figureheads will be on hand to answer attendees’ questions and workshop ideas on how to best navigate these challenging times.
I hope to see you on 22 October 2026 in London. For more information and to book your tickets, click here.
[BG1]Can we put some sort of CTA for the forum here?