Speaking at the British Nutrition Foundation’s (BNF) online summit on 21 May 2026, the former government food tsar, shared his thoughts and predictions on the future food system.
Setting the scene, Henry Dimbleby outlined the current pressure-cooker environment facing the industry, pointing not only to steep price climbs in nitrogen fertiliser that will feed inflation well into the spring, but a severe El Niño event expected next year that may add another 4% onto inflation.
In this intense environment, he warned that there is a risk that companies may focus too much on price and lose sight of a profound shift happening in consumer demand.
We have an outdated approach to health
As GLP-1s become more accessible, how and what people eat will see fundamental changes – and the industry needs to ensure it adapts quickly to this evolution.
“People are spending £2,000 a year on it [weight loss drugs] – and it’s across all countries, all demographics,” Dimbleby said, painting a picture of its proliferation.
Weight loss drugs are becoming more accessible, having started to come off patent in certain areas such as Canada and India, while a pill format has just rolled out into the States.
As this continues across the globe, we will start to see prices for these drugs tumbling. While the Wegovy weight loss drug could be knocked down from thousands to tens of pounds, Orforglipron has the potential to drop even further.
“It’ll be pence, it’ll be like antihistamines,” Dimbleby predicted. “So what we’re going to get is a society where it is going to be possible to choose what weight you are; and most people will choose not to be obese or overweight.”
Overall calorie intake will slow, with Bramble Intelligence estimating a 5% reduction. And more significant declines will be seen across those taking weight loss drugs – initially around 30% before levelling out to about 15%.
Rethinking health and consumers
As weight loss drugs become more commonplace, it will require the food industry and government to seriously rethink its approach to health.
Dimbleby believes society’s focus has been too heavily centred on what we shouldn’t eat rather than what we should eat (e.g. more plants, more fibre).
Now, with the advent of weight loss drugs, the reduction part is going to take care of itself. But it will also give way to new challenges.
“To date, one in five people who are taking these drugs are malnourished,” he said, pointing to a lack of wraparound care being given to those on GLP-1s.
In response, we need to pivot our focus towards promoting positive nutrition, with industry and government both having roles to play in educating and supporting the public.
UPFs: evidence will come
A strong theme that ran throughout the BNF summit was moving beyond the UPF conversation.
However, as Dimbleby pointed out: regardless of what you think about UPFs, it’s had a strong influence on consumers. As many as 94% of people know the term and 80% want to eat less UPFs.
Dimbleby believes the reason it has had such a profound impact is because it’s “fundamentally revealed” that the onus is on companies.
“This is about the man f***ing with you,” he said. “This is companies making your children sick to make money.”
He added that whilst he doesn’t consider this is the intention of businesses, he believes it to be true.
“That’s where the food system has gone because that’s where the incentives were,” he continued.
“People are happy to be a bit naughty themselves, but everyone hates ‘the man’.”
Current research points to several core areas of concern around UPFs – high palpability and calorie density; the “weird” macronutrients; and the low level of phytochemicals and xenobiotics, according to Dimbleby. He describes the latter two as the “things in the product from the packaging and processing that aren’t in normal foods”.
He believes concerns over UPFs are here to stay – at least until further evidence emerges. And he predicts further evidence will come - and it will be very revealing.
In 15 years’ time, for the first time in a long time, we will end up eating less volume but spending more on food because food will be linked [more closely] to health.
Henry Dimbleby , co-founder, Bramble Partners
Who defines health?
Alongside UPFs and GLP-1s, another major disruptor is artificial intelligence; with most consumers now equipped with a “nutritionist in their pocket”.
AI is already influencing meal planning, shopping lists and product selection, as consumers turn to platforms such as Claude and ChatGPT for guidance.
This raises an interesting question – who in the future will the public turn to for health and diet advice?
For Dimbleby it’s definitely not the Government - with the expert pointing to their slow moving approach as a hinderance.
“Government are now introducing a new NPM model that is already eight years old, it was developed in 2018. The science is moving much faster than that,” he said, illustrating his point.
The AI revolution also means that food choices will no longer be dictated by the core driving principles of price, taste, convenience (and now health) alone - but also algorithms. This presents a big risk to producers and brands who will need to approach marketing in a whole new way. More on agentic AI and shopping here.
Moreover, our increasing dependence on AI is now driving companies, including Google, to explore how they determine what evidence to feed into the AI models.
Currently, AI isn’t neutral and so it must currently “editorialise” and decide what constitutes as healthy. While Dimbleby says it’s doing a pretty good job, it’s not a fool-proof solution and has the potential to go very wrong.
As AI service providers deliberate the data, there are also question marks around how to best package this up. If consumers end up paying for this service, it may mean uptake remains limited. If funded by advertising, it could see trust eroded.
This presents an opportunity for retailers which already have access to detailed customer purchasing data through loyalty programmes, giving them the ability to track behaviour over time and personalise guidance.
However to succeed, Dimbleby says retailers are going to have to “summon the courage” to mark themselves out as “the source of knowledge”; and do it in a way that builds trust, e.g. allowing customers to opt in.
The key takeaway
We’re at a watershed moment.
Everything we thought we knew about health and consumers is changing as GLP-1s and AI become part of the everyday.
The profits are going to move all over the place, some incumbents will move fast enough, some will be wiped out, they’ll be new companies.
Henry Dimbleby , co-founder, Bramble Partners
For Dimbleby it’s likely that new evidence will emerge, exposing deeper issues.
“[It will be revealed that] food is harming us – not just because of quantity but the quality," he warned.
However, if we “resolve this” and get through these turbulent times, it will ultimately lead to a “healthier, more energetic and happier society with a much more positive food system”.
People will not only enjoy food but it will “make them well instead of sick”, he concluded.
