Our IGD forecasts for the UK shows that online is set to be the fastest-growing channel from 2025-2030 at +23.6% growth, worth £6.1 billion.
For manufacturers looking to fully leverage this opportunity, a key component is to uncover how shopper behaviour is evolving and what will best resonate with them.
However, this is a far from an easy task, with no one-size-fits-all approach available.
In fact, the online channel continues to fragment, making it vital to understand how behaviour differs across each sub-channel. As Gen Z shoppers enter the market, they’ll increasingly shape how the channel evolves.
To help support this understanding, we split online into four key sub-channels, these are: retailer websites, quick commerce, social commerce and direct-to-consumer.
How people are shopping online
Usage is highest for the retailer website sub-channel with 35% of shoppers having used these sites within a four-week period.
Quick commerce comes in second, with growth driven by higher-income 18–44-year-olds.
Despite the noise around social commerce, usage has grown by only 1% since 2024. Its real value today is less transactional and more around inspiration, as shoppers are using social platforms to browse and discover products, even if they ultimately buy elsewhere.
While usage has only increased slightly, the number of shoppers open to using social commerce has increased from 15% in 2024 to 23% in 2026, driven by younger shoppers.
Gen Z in particular are driving the usage in quick and social commerce and just under half of those aged 18-24 purchased food, drink and grocery items via quick commerce in the last four weeks.
Many of these younger shoppers are not yet responsible for full household spending, often still living with parents, so they tend to be more selective in the missions and products they choose.
However, while younger, digitally native shoppers will accelerate growth across fast and diverse online sub-channels, you can’t afford to focus on them alone.
Building trust and a simple, intuitive experience could make these emerging sub-channels more appealing to older shoppers who tend to favour the familiarity and reassurance of retailer websites.
Whilst most shoppers use multiple sub-channels, those who use retailer websites remain warmest to all other sub-channels. That is where the real opportunity lies: if you can increase the cadence at which shoppers use these to shop for your brand and make it their default, you can unlock the pathway into every other online sub-channel.
What matters to consumers
Despite the proliferation of online options, the fundamentals remain critical across online grocery. In terms of what matters most to shoppers, price and quality reign supreme.
Quality is the most important factor in four of the five online sub-channels, while quick commerce shoppers place greater importance on price, reflecting sensitivity to delivery fees and the growing importance of promotions, member pricing and loyalty schemes in supporting repeat usage.
Price sensitivity is strongest among middle-aged, middle-income shoppers, who may be feeling the pressure of rising costs the most.
Delving into quick commerce specifically, it is now a weekly habit for a third of shoppers, with one in five of those purchasing on quick commerce also adding groceries to their baskets.
This behaviour is most pronounced among younger and more affluent shoppers, with higher‑income households more likely to combine foodservice and grocery purchases in a single order.
While the categories shoppers buy most often in quick commerce reflect food-to-go missions such as soft drinks, impulse items and bakery, the real growth opportunity lies in the categories they haven’t yet purchased but would consider. For example, non-food categories over index as the growth categories for quick commerce.
It’s clear that online grocery is fragmenting into distinct roles, with shoppers moving between sub-channels based on need rather than loyalty to a single route.
For manufacturers to compete successfully, it will depend on delivering value, quality and relevance wherever that shop happens.
