The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has said that constrained cattle and sheep supply will remain a key feature of the market, underpinning market fundamentals in the years ahead.
Across the board, the levy body is expecting production of beef, lamb, pork and dairy to fall over the next year.
UK beef production, for example, is set to fall to 896,000 tonnes in 2027, marking a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, with increased carcass weights expected to only partially offset lower cattle throughputs.
The outlook for sheep is little better, with production forecast to decline by 2.4% to 262,000 tonnes in 2027 due to lower slaughter numbers and a contracting breeding flock.
Adding to those challenges, a bluetongue outbreak is currently affecting sheep flocks in South West England, which could affect ewe fertility and future lamb crops. However, the severity of the disease’s impact will depend on the extent of its spread and vaccination uptake.
The AHDB predicts that the biggest decline overall will be seen in pork, forecasting a 3.7% drop in production in 2027 to around 979,000 tonnes.
A fall in the female breeding herd and ongoing pressure on producer margins have been cited as key contributing factors, and exports are expected to decline as a result of lower production.
In the dairy sector, milk production is forecast to drop by 2.2% during the 2026/27 milk season, with an additional 1.1% decline expected during the first half of 2027/28.
Low forage stocks, falling cow numbers, rising production costs and disease risks are all set to impact output, particularly if prices fail to strengthen sufficiently to maintain current production levels.
David Swales, head of economics and analysis at AHDB, said: “Tight cattle and sheep numbers remain a key feature of the market and are expected to continue underpinning prices over the forecast period.”
“While we expect consumer demand to remain under pressure, reduced production in both the UK and key competitor regions is helping to support market fundamentals.”
He continued: “At the same time, businesses will need to remain alert to a range of risks, including disease challenges such as bluetongue, changing trade dynamics and ongoing cost pressures.”
