The National Drought Group declared earlier this week that two-thirds of England is now in drought, joining the entirety of Wales, with the whole of the UK experiencing its hottest and driest summer on record.
We are now experiencing our sixth heatwave of the summer and the consequences for farming and agriculture have been, unsurprisingly, severe.
Estimates published last week by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) suggest that as much as £390 million could be wiped off the usual turnover of arable farmers, reducing total potential yield by around 2.5 million tonnes.
This dramatically warm and dry summer comes at a rather inopportune moment for the British food industry, which has faced a supply chain crisis of sorts resulting from ongoing instability in the Middle East. It shines yet another glaring spotlight on the UK’s lack of preparedness and genuine food resilience.
Harvest concerns
Urging the Government to work more closely with the agricultural sector to mitigate these challenges, NFU crops board chair Jamie Burrows said: “Farming is all about planning for the long-term but more frequent climate extremes makes this really hard and financially risky.
“While the outlook for harvest varies depending on crop, region and soil type, it’s clear that this year’s grain has been produced scarily close to, or even below, the cost of production.”
Burrows also noted that widespread water shortages caused by the drought have limited farmers’ ability to irrigate crops and called for greater investment in more resilient varieties in anticipation of future climate disruption.
“We are doing what we can to mitigate the risks on farm, but the Government must work with industry on this. Most arable farmers can’t irrigate their crops, and that’s why we need investment in resilient crop varieties that are more able to withstand drought and disease and have greater yield resilience.
“This kind of innovation would help to deliver domestic food security and strengthen our resilience against a changing climate.
“Resilience also comes from a fair and transparent marketplace. This means government publishing its findings of the supply chain fairness review, delivering a Sector Growth Plan, ensuring that British growers aren’t disadvantaged as we realign with EU rules, and delaying the implementation of the carbon tax (CBAM) on fertiliser.”
Impact spreads beyond arable farming
Defra’s confirmation that around 70% of England has now entered drought conditions has not just concerned arable farmers, with meat producers also expressing frustrations and fears around the situation.
AIMS head of communications Tony Goodger told Food Manufacture: “We urgently ask the Minister, Emma Hardy MP, to include meat and poultry processing within her additional engagement with key groups such as farmers, water companies and cross-party representatives.”
In particular, Goodger pointed to the recent water shortage at a key 2 Sisters poultry processing facility.
“The recent lack of water at the 2 Sisters site in Devon is unacceptable in terms of operational requires, food safety and hygiene and animal welfare and must be repeated with any abattoir and processing site in the UK.”
Import reliance leaves UK exposed
The concern from industry is clear and, while supermarkets are not currently facing immediate shortages, Huw Kinsey, principal consultant at Proxima, said the UK’s reliance on imported fruit and vegetables leaves it vulnerable to both climate and geopolitical disruption.
“With temperatures expected to climb as high as 36 degrees this week, further pressure will be placed on the UK’s ability to maintain food supply.
“While there is no immediate danger of shortages for consumers, as supermarkets have built sophisticated webs of global sourcing networks, the series of heatwaves throughout the summer have already impacted current and future harvests in the UK and beyond.
“The most immediate impact is on crops, such as cereals and oilseeds, that form the backbone of the UK food supply chain. Wheat and barley are essential inputs into livestock feed, meaning poor harvests can increase production costs across poultry, pork, dairy and beef supply chains, which can in turn get passed on to consumers.”
He continued: “While supermarkets can switch between suppliers when any sort of disruption occurs, importing food may not provide the safety net it once did.
“The UK imports around 78% of its fruit and vegetables, leaving it exposed to climate-related disruption in key growing regions such as Spain, France and Morocco. If multiple geographies experience drought, heatwaves or wildfires simultaneously, finding alternative supply becomes significantly more difficult and expensive.
“Therefore, while we expect the availability of food to remain relatively stable over the coming weeks, consumers should brace themselves for price volatility and changing sourcing origins for many everyday products as supermarkets look to weather the storm.”
That 78% figure underlines the deep bind that the UK food industry finds itself in.
It simply does not produce enough to meet its own population’s demands – and as climate conditions become ever more volatile, its chief markets may in time struggle to produce as much of a surplus, threatening not just our supply chain, but the global food ecosystem as well.
Calls for long-term action
“England has now had three droughts in five years. Reservoirs are at 69% and falling, 11.6% below normal for this time of year. Farmers have had their earliest harvest in 20 years and more than 27 million people are living under water restrictions,” said Tom Cantillon, senior analyst at the ECIU.
And these alarming figures are impacting every facet of UK food production, from crops to livestock.
He added: “The impacts are already being felt across UK agriculture, from stunted vegetable crops and lower yields to poor grass growth that is keeping pressure on beef prices, while heat-stressed cows produced millions fewer pints of milk during this summer’s heatwaves.
“Current data suggest that the 2026 arable harvest is likely to be one of the worst on record after drought and extreme heat damaged crops, underlining how vulnerable food production is to a changing climate.”
Painting perhaps the bleakest picture of all, Cantillon urged decisive action.
“Talk of this being the new normal undersells it: on current projections, droughts get worse and more frequent from here. We can and should plug leaks and conserve water, but no amount of hosepipe bans will fix a broken climate.
Every drought from here will be shaped by how much further the world warms, and that only stops when we reach net zero and halt further warming.
Tom Cantillon, senior analyst at the ECIU
So what can the Government and the food industry do when faced with this deeply uncomfortable truth? Net zero and more local, and resilient food production is absolutely required, and perhaps even a top-down rethink of crop and livestock farming in this country is needed.
Workshop with leading experts
This is why Food Manufacture’s next Business Leaders’ Forum will be focused on resilience in the squeezed middle, looking at what businesses can control and do in this volatile environment.
On 22 October, we’ll be joined by the below esteemed experts in London, who will be on hand to answer delegate’s questions and workshop ideas on how to best navigate these challenging times.
- Professor Tim Lang, one of the UK’s leading food policy experts, examining the broader risks facing the food system and what they mean for manufacturers
- Paul Geary, former Morrisons Trading Director, sharing practical perspectives on building stronger customer relationships in challenging trading conditions
- Flora Zwolinski, Lumina Intelligence, providing exclusive insight into the consumer, market and retail trends shaping the sector
This huge problem requires collaborative thinking from across the sector.
If you’re a senior leader, department head or influencer working for a food/drink manufacturer and keen to be a part that, click here to book your place now.
