It’s tough being a baker today. Every other headline seems to be another knock on the head.
First, it was sugar reduction. Then salt. Then cocoa prices went through the roof - not ideal when bakers pump out a whole lot of chocolate. Butter soon joined the party. And now we have the doom and gloom around UPFs and the rise of GLP-1s.
Why is something so universally loved so often treated like the villain?
Mike Bagshaw, founder of I.T.S
Why is it always bakery getting the stick? In my view, the category is an easy target. It’s visible, emotional and everywhere.
But...one thing has become clear to me over the years: bakers do not stay down for long.
None of the past doomsayers has managed to tackle bakery to the ground. Consumers still love indulgence and they always will. Yes, reformulation matters - but that has not killed bakery. It has made the sector more inventive.
When cocoa prices rose, bakers got creative. They found ways to reduce cocoa use, boost chocolate notes with natural flavours and use pairings that complement chocolate rather than simply throwing more of it into the mix. Dark chocolate with fruit, blonde chocolate and white chocolate-led desserts all show that necessity can be a very useful ingredient.
The same happened with butter. Bakery did not panic. It adapted, which is what good bakers do.
As a former chairman and now long-standing committee member of the British Society of Baking (BSB), I am always inspired by the optimism in the sector. The recent BSB conference was a good reminder of that. There was real energy in the room, and plenty of proof that this is an industry looking forward, not backwards.
What makes bakery unique is how united it is. Bakers are genuinely in it together. It is a close-knit, well-connected industry that is proud of its traditions, but not stuck in the past. That unity speeds up collaboration, supports innovation and, in the real world, gives commercial bakers an advantage.
Changing times bring changing trends
The GLP-1 trend is an unpredictable one. If consumers’ appetites are reduced, then pack sizes and portion sizes will clearly come under pressure. But again, I do not see bakers running for the hills. Habits may change, but people will always want cake. That is not wishful thinking; it is human nature.
What may change is the value equation. The market may move away from five doughnuts in a bag for £1 (although there will always be a place for that) and towards one doughnut with a better filling, a more decadent topping, and a bit more theatre. If people are eating less, the thing they do eat needs to work harder.
The beverage sector is really doubling down on adding function to its products to help stay resistant to the GLP-1 impact, and we’re starting to see the signs of this in bakery with protein breads and gut-boosting products to name a few.
Although function will be big, I think bakery’s strength is in its indulgence.
The rise of GLP-1 therefore points towards smaller packs, more premium SKUs and products that deliver a proper moment of indulgence. Less volume does not have to mean less value. In some cases, it may mean the opposite.
At the same time, the UPF debate, HFSS regulations and consumer demand for more natural ingredients are pushing manufacturers to look again at ingredient declarations. The challenge for commercial bakers is to make products that look cleaner on pack, while still delivering on taste, texture, shelf life and saleability. Simple is rarely simple behind the factory doors.
The indulgence trend
One of the strongest trends we are seeing in bakery is indulgence, but not the old-fashioned pile-it-high kind. It is more sophisticated than that.
One of the top flavour trends of the year was sophisticated, indulgent flavours. That means premium ingredients, often with a global influence, layered with interesting flavour notes and textures to create products that feel high-end but still comforting. That is the magic of bakery: it can be familiar and exciting at the same time.
Brown butter is a great example. It brings depth, warmth and sophistication to familiar formats such as cookies, blondies and cakes. Gooseberry, cardamom, honey, miso and shiso are also in this more sophisticated flavour space, and I think they are ones to watch for 2026 and 2027.
Flavour is one of the best ways to raise the value of a bakery product. If the future is less about quantity and more about quality, then taste must earn its place. Consumers may buy fewer treats, but when they do, they will want those treats to deliver. A disappointing premium brownie is unforgivable.
We are already seeing budget retailers such as Aldi and Lidl push hard on premium innovation, going head-to-head with the kind of NPD we might expect from M&S and Waitrose. Premiumisation is no longer just for premium retailers.
So, for once, I would like to spread a bit of good news for the bakery industry. It has taken plenty of hits over the years and it is still standing. More than that, it is still innovating.
The future is bright for bakers willing to seize it. No matter how many bad headlines are thrown at the sector, people will still love the smell of freshly baked bread, cream teas in the summer, and a slice of brownie when the day calls for one.
Can you imagine a world without cake? I cannot. And I am not sure I would want to live in it.
