The new research forecasts that the global convenience channel will grow from around £665 billion in 2025 to over £740 billion in sales by 2030 - but predicts that the channel will lose share in the grocery market in the face of rising competition from discounters, supermarkets and rapid delivery services.
Released as part of IGD’s Global convenience trends 2026 report, the Institute’s figures indicate that while convenience will continue to grow at 3.5% CAGR to 2030, this will trail total grocery growth of 4% CAGR. As a result, the channel’s share of grocery is expected to fall from 10.7% in 2025 to 10.4% in 2030.
The analysis also shows the growth and market share experience of the convenience sector will differ greatly by region, with Europe projected to deliver the strongest market share gains, rising from 11.3% to 11.9%, driven by aggressive estate expansion and franchising.
North America, the world’s largest convenience market, is expected to grow the slowest, with market share declining from 16.9% in 2025 to 15.1% in 2030 as discounters and rapid delivery services intensify competition.
Asia is set to contribute the largest increase in absolute sales, but convenience penetration will remain below 8% as traditional retail and local food markets continue to compete strongly.
“The headline growth masks a structural challenge: convenience risks becoming a bigger channel with a smaller role in grocery spending unless retailers and suppliers adapt,” Sneha Haria, insight manager at IGD, said.
“The channel’s historic advantages are being eroded, and without change, it will continue to lose share.”
She continued: “Convenience can no longer rely on proximity to justify its place in grocery. The operators gaining share are deliberately reshaping their offer around clear food missions, visible value and everyday usefulness.”
Key to success
IGD’s analysis identified that those convenience operators able to buck the trend and continue to gain market share are those that are “redefining” the role of the store, rather than relying on customer proximity alone.
The research finds that successful convenience retailers are increasingly focused on creating clear food-for-now and food-for-later strategies, as well as strengthening value credentials through private label, loyalty and simpler pricing.
They are also using automation and technology to protect margins and improve efficiency, while adding services, food and experiences that competitors struggle to replicate locally.
