The warning comes from the Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS), which has just published its February meat and poultry inflation tracker.
According to the trade body, the dramatic escalation in tensions seen over the weekend - which resulted in the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - could lead to widespread disruption to global food supplies.
Citing potential disruption to global shipping lanes running through the Straits of Hormuz, AIMS head of comms, Tony Goodger said: “Longer term input costs such as fertiliser, animal feed, and oil all could cause inflationary pressures in production markets such as the UK.
“But should Middle East tourism be heavily impacted then import volumes to the region will decline, which could also see more UK production remaining in the UK market.”
The war comes at quite an inopportune moment for British shoppers, as meat price inflation has flattened across the board in February, with beef (-0.45%), pork (-0.56%) and chicken (-0.43%), all showing falls in AIMS’ report – lamb being the only exception (+0.58%).
But in a damning indictment of the ongoing cost-of-living crisis and years of global economic uncertainty, overall UK meat and poultry prices are still 11.99% higher than over the same period last year.
AIMS’ report show that lean minced beef has seen a particularly dramatic spike in prices over the last year, with prices rising by 31.91% (£2.55 per kg), alongside roasting joints, up 30.48% (£3.95 per kg).
Striking a cautious tone, the International Meat Trade Association’s CEO Katie Doherty told Food Manufacture that a clearer picture would emerge over the coming days, and that speculation would be difficult at this stage: “As geopolitical events continue to impact on the food industry, it is a further reminder of the importance of the UK having multiple sources of dependable food supply, both robust domestic production and a range of reliable sources of imported supply.
“Whilst events are still unfolding in The Middle East, it is too early to say what the impact will be on UK food prices. This will depend in particular on the duration of the situation especially in terms of impacts on energy prices and shipping routes which both have a significant bearing on food supply.”
On a more optimistic note, a British Meat Processors Association spokesperson said: “From what we understand, most Australian and New Zealand beef and lamb imports already come to the UK and EU via the Cape, so there will be minimal disruption to that.
“On the sharp increase in oil and gas prices, this will likely not have an immediate effect on food prices, but will filter through over the medium term as those price hikes to input costs are passed on through the supply chain.”
