In an exclusive trends presentation delivered by Lumina Intelligence insights manager, Liv Warren, at the most recent Business Leaders’ Forum, delegates heard about three major areas they can’t afford to ignore. These comprised health, supply chain risks, and value and quality.
“Health has perhaps seen the most drastic changes over recent years,” said Warren.
“If you look at the late 2010s, early 2020s, it was a completely different beast. People were pushing plant-based diets, plant-based sectors at supermarkets were huge, and there was also this body positivity movement that felt like it was unstoppable.
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“But then if we’re looking towards the now, we have shifted away from the plant-based diets, we’ve seen a big return to meat and wholefoods. We’ve also got this ‘high protein everything’ and really strong anti-UPF sentiment, as well as weight loss jabs coming in.”
Warren predicts that in the future we will see the conversation around UPFs become more nuanced, as opposed to today’s more polarised debates. She also expects GLP-1s – which are currently in their infancy in the UK – to gain more momentum in the domestic market as they become cheaper and more accessible. In turn, both these trends are likely to encourage further interest in ingredients such as fibre and protein, as consumers look to feed their bodies with the nutrients they need.
For now, the health category is at a tipping point; with Lumina research showing consumers are buying food with function (76%), but at the same time more than half (51%) want to avoid some or all UPFs.
36% of consumers are buying food with added protein
Lumina Intelligence, Eating & Drinking Out Panel 52WE 26.10.2025, UPF Survey 2025, CTP 2025
These conflicting ideas are likely a result of differing information and a lack of insight. Consumers are getting information from all angles, but they’re not quite educated enough to discern the truth…and arguably, nor are we as a sector, with UPFs still without a legal definition.
A stroke of marketing genius
However, when something proves in demand, businesses naturally respond. Marks & Spencer was especially quick off the mark as the clean label movement rose from a gentle simmer to a full boil. Spying an opportunity, the premium grocer promptly rolled out a series of new products with short ingredients lists. These were eagerly snatched off shelves by the public, whilst nutritionists took to socials to air their outrage over a lack of fortification.
Love or hate it, M&S has played its hand well. But it’s not only the retailer’s speed which has acted into its favour, Sparks has also been extremely clever with its marketing. As Warren highlighted to delegates: if you take the time to look, its Only 8 Ingredient Ketchup – which boldly professes this front of pack – matches the number of ingredients in a bottle of Heinz tomato ketchup.
Of course, M&S has the benefit of the consumer not being able to pick up a Heinz bottle in store and compare them directly, but as Warren warns, it may not be long until the consumer catches on.
This fewer ingredient trend has also renewed interest in meat, as consumers opt for more natural sources of protein – quite the U-turn from just a few years prior when you couldn’t move for plant-based launches.
Since then, the category has seen relentless consolidation and companies have adjusted their focus accordingly. Warren gave a few examples, including the likes of Wagamama axing some of their plant-based options not long after committing to a 50% plant-based menu.
“They’ve kept a couple of tofu and veg options, but a lot of the fake meat options have been removed,” Warren told delegates.
Meanwhile, restaurants like Gaucho have capitalised on our carnivorous side, recently launching a protein-centric set menu with the protein count next to each item; and a dessert comprising the rather untraditional option of Greek yoghurt and berries in line with demands for natural protein. Long gone are the days of chocolate fudge sundaes, it seems.
At the same time, we have seen other brands which may fall into the UPF bracket, change their messaging to keep pace with popular ideas. For example, last summer saw Quorn rolling out updated packs of its mince range SKUs with the claim ‘high protein with no artificial ingredients’.
We asked the leaders in the room how they’re reacting, and almost a third (30%) said they are actively reformulating/removing ingredients in response to conversations around UPFs.
How weight loss drugs are rewriting eating behaviours
Of course, the most recent and arguably drastic change to the food and health landscape is the increasing uptake of weight loss jabs. Lumina Intelligence research shows 4.7% of UK consumers are currently taking GLP-1s, with 5.2% having taken them in the past, and 9.6% considering taking them in the future.
In total, this equates to 20%, reflecting a distinct portion of the UK population sitting within the sphere of GLP-1s.
“When you’re looking at their impact it’s [GLP-1] going to have on consumers, you need to consider all three of these consumers rather than just the ones currently taking it,” Warren advised.
And this number is only likely to grow. In the US – where the skinny jab is a much more mature market – we have recently seen Novo Nordisk commercialise its GLP-1 pill. This comes at a much lower price tag than the injection, meaning weight loss medication is on its way to becoming more mainstream. Data from Truveta underscores this, showing that 36% of consumers on this ‘skinny pill’ are new to the drug.
As Warren told delegates, it’s likely that the UK will follow suit. So expect to see further launches accompanying the likes of Applied Nutrition’s Small & Balanced and Co-Op’s Good Fuel.
And it’s not just the supermarkets reacting to this trend, we’re also seeing high-end restaurants and bars offering smaller portions. Heston Blumenthal’s Fat Duck restaurant, for example, has a reduced-price and portion, multi-course tasting menu designed for those with smaller appetites.
Looking into the future, it’s not impossible to envisage chain restaurants launching smaller portion menus too – similar to kid menus but targeted at adults on GLP-1s.
Among those attending the forum, as many as 42% said they can see GLP-1 having a significant impact, but only for certain occasions/products.
Moreover, as one delegate raised during the discussion: Could the move towards reduced appetites also introduce new eating habits when it comes to timing? If someone only eats when they are hungry, can we expect to see the traditional early breakfast, midday lunch, and 7pm dinner go out the window?
However, among those in the room it’s fibre that the delegates see as offering up the biggest opportunity for their business (35%), followed by gut health (26%), and AI (16%), with GLP-1s garnering just 10% of the room’s vote.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, GLP-1s were identified as the biggest risk (64%), followed by AI (32%).
Has supply disruption become the new normal?
As Warren said to the room “disruption has become the norm” and is in turn giving way to new innovations and forced shifts.
Analysis from the WWF puts this into perspective, with over a year’s supply of bread having been lost in the last decade because of drought and heavy rainfall on wheat harvests. Meanwhile, severe weather conditions caused cocoa prices to surge 136% between 2022 and 2024, with key cocoa growing regions set to become unsuitable for production in the future.
While these concerning figures invite questions around the world’s food security, they also raise issues over food safety and food authenticity.
When food manufacturers are facing eye watering prices or unable to obtain certain ingredients, opportunities for fraudsters can arise, who can tempt producers in with too good to be true offers.
At the same time, as we have seen with chocolate, it can also prompt sneaky recipe changes as a result of so-called skimpflation. Toffee Crisp, Blue Ribbon, and Penguin Bars are all among the chocolate brands which cannot be described as chocolate because they have done things such as reducing cocoa/milk solids or adding in more palm/shea oil.
But it has also given way to creative alternatives including cocoa free chocolate from the likes of Nukoko and Win-Win, and bean free coffee from Atomo.
As Warren pointed out, it’s interesting to see these solutions hit the market at the same time as UPF debates continue to grip the nation.
Alongside shortages caused by nature, certain products are struggling to keep up with consumer demand. Social media’s far-reaching influence has meant that ingredients and products found in other countries are more visible, with the potential to go viral overnight.
Whilst it’s a great opportunity for companies to get use ingredients they may have not previously considered for a UK market, these large spikes in demand can also result in shortages and promote a damaging environment of monoculture.
It’s incredible to consider that we as humans and ‘social as a trend’ is having almost as much impact as a drought.
Liv Warren, insights manager, Lumina Intelligence
But as the saying goes, necessity is the mother of invention. Similar to how brands have reacted to dwindling yields, experimentation is also occurring as a result of products becoming too popular. One example Warren gave is creativity in the slower release caffeine category.
Matcha has seen a sudden surge in popularity due to its health halo (and driven by TikTokers) - but this rush has dried up global supplies.
As such, companies are getting their thinking hats on and looking for a replacement, as Warren noted: “Brands are having to find the next thing in the absence of whatever’s popular.”
One alternative in particular has caught Lumina Intelligence’s eye is hojicha powder, which is primed to take the limelight from matcha.
That being said, not all TikTok ‘wonders’ should be taken as gospel, with companies using intelligence at their disposal to ensure these trends have (long) legs.
“Brands need to be sensible about the trends they jump on. Not everything is going to be the next Dubai chocolate.”
Risk was also considered during the proceeding tabletop discussions chaired by industry veteran, Helen Sisson. Sharing both IGD and AON separate top list of risks, Sisson asked the delegates to highlight which were their biggest concerns.
Labour and skills (IGD list) was identified as the top concern, with 48% citing this as a big worry, followed by supply chain disruption at 44%. The AON list meanwhile saw supply chain disruption lower on the list (31%) with cyberattacks and data breaches taking top spot at 69%.
Interestingly when it comes to priorities, most of the delegates in the room (67%) said ‘optimising production and increasing productivity’. This positions technology in an interesting limbo – simultaneously offering opportunity whilst being regarded as a risk.
It’s evident that we have a long way to go when it comes to technology. The majority of manufacturers are at the beginning of their journey, finding to tricky to decipher the right tools and generate enough capital to invest in the first place. But it also seems that we may not be taking cybersecurity as seriously as we should be.
M&S’s recent cyberattack underscored the crippling impact an attack can have – but how many companies actually have a gameplan? Are we blundering towards a repeat of Covid, with no plans in place if we’re hit by a catastrophic, widespread attack on food?
Quality, craft and customisation take centre stage
The final trend identified by Warren was the repositioning of price on the priority list.
The insights expert explained that value has been redefined; it no longer means costing less. Instead, value can translate to fresh, craft-led ingredients and customisation – qualities which can make a slightly higher price tag more justifiable.
“In the future, these fundamentals are going to be key. Things that have everyday relevance are really going to bump up that quality value as well, such as flavour, texture and consistency – anything that makes the consumer feel good about buying the products is going to become paramount,” Warren shared.
Lumina Intelligence psychographics – which show how consumers define themselves – shows the top three brackets as ‘very quality led’ (77.9%), ‘very value conscious’ (74.2%), and ‘very brand led’ (67.2%).
However, what’s interesting to note is that whilst value remains important, it isn’t growing. Instead, the top growing psychographics year on year are ‘very health conscious’ (+2.9ppt), ‘very brand led’ (+2.2ppt), and ‘very quality led’ (+1.6ppt).
As Warren elaborated, this shows a movement towards a new kind of perceived value: “If quality and brand offer the consumer something different, then the value is within them.”
Further polling from Lumina Intelligence also highlighted the things consumers are willing to pay more for, with higher quality ingredients coming top, followed by seasonal and fresh ingredients.
However, sustainability and provenance are two key areas that shouldn’t be forgotten – with consumers still keen to buy brands that are genuinely green and championing local.
There are several examples on the market of brands using Wildfarmed regenerative flour in their ingredients list, for example; this includes Minor Figures, Shake Shack, as well as a new London restaurant, Town, which focuses on regenerative farmed British produce.
Whilst there is no hard and fast definition for regenerative as of yet, it could be that we’ll start to see certifications linked to healthy soil and organic start to see an uptick in popularity as consumers demand evidence for these claims.
The February 2026 Business Leaders’ Forum was kindly supported by Aveva, Multivac and Sage. If you’re keen to sponsor future sessions, please click here.