New research from Circana found that the UK’s plant-based sector is “showing stagnation”, with UK volume declining by 0.7%. This makes ours the weakest performer among six major European markets.
But before those who enjoy penning gleeful ‘Veganism is over!’ articles get too excited, it’s worth asking: what exactly are we seeing stagnation of?
Because when you look closely at Circana’s data, and at the growing body of evidence from the UK’s own supermarkets, a very different picture emerges. One that tells us not about the death of the plant-based sector, but about its evolution into something more interesting – a long-term, stable and nutritionally grounded player.
The category that’s ‘stagnating’ is not the category that’s growing
The Circana data reveals that the products losing ground are mostly ultra-processed meat analogues. This category ballooned in 2021; for a while it felt like every brand with an R&D department was falling over itself to launch a new plant-based burger or chicken nugget into the market.
Many of those launches simply didn’t have enough demand behind them. Shelves became saturated. As a result, a number of brands have fallen away, leaving just the core players.
Such correction is inevitable in any marketplace following a ‘boom’ phase. Far from a damning indictment of a category teetering on the brink, it’s actually a rather mundane, predictable pattern.
Meanwhile, the products that are genuinely thriving tell the real story. Tesco recently reported that vegan mince is up nearly 25%, tofu, tempeh and seitan are up 12%, and falafel snacks are up over 5% as consumers rediscover the joys of ‘from scratch’ cooking.
Supermarket own-label plant-based meat sales rose 6% by volume and 14% by value according to a 2025 study in Nutrition Reviews – figures that sit somewhat awkwardly alongside a terminal-decline narrative – and oat milk brand, Oatly, delivered its first full year of profitability in 2025, despite losing a Supreme Court battle with big dairy over its use of the phrase ‘post-milk generation’ in its marketing.
Meanwhile, tempeh brand Better Nature is poised for further growth and success after raising £1.1 million, primarily from angel investors, following a stellar Q2 2025.
None of this indicates that the category is facing any form of crisis – merely that it’s shedding the gimmicks.
Attracting consumers through pricing and labelling
The idea that British consumers have lost their appetite for plant-based food is directly contradicted by consumer data. According to Finder, 3.5 million people plan to go vegan in 2026, with a further 5.2 million intending to go vegetarian. Veganuary 2026 was record-breaking, with around 30 million participants worldwide, and the Good Food Institute reports that 31% of UK consumers are actively reducing their meat intake.
Circana’s own analysis identifies a key barrier to broader plant-based adoption: price. Plant-based proteins still cost more than animal ones at point of sale. This gap reflects not consumer indifference but the absence of the significant financial and political support that has kept meat and dairy artificially cheap for decades. We’re living through a period of sustained economic hardship. If plant-based brands want to attract consumers, they need to be competitively priced.
There’s also a labelling problem. Increasingly, consumers are seeking high protein options (at the expense of fibre, when it comes to animal products). A study starring the humble Greggs vegan sausage roll found that when its protein content is clearly highlighted (and they do contain more protein than their meaty counterparts), the proportion of consumers choosing the vegan option jumped from under 25% to over 50%.
Clearer information changes behaviour, improving nutritional awareness and fuelling sales, and the good news is that plant-based foods often have a very positive nutritional story to tell.
For food brands, the direction of travel is clear
The consumers driving plant-based growth right now are not necessarily all committed vegans but also flexitarians, protein-seekers, the health-conscious, and the GLP-1 generation. That’s a big group of people.
The products winning with them share common characteristics: minimal processing, recognisable ingredients, strong protein credentials and transparent labelling. Brands that lean into wholefood formats – think tempeh, tofu, legume-based ready meals and fortified oat drinks – are outperforming those still chasing the ultra-realistic meat-mimic market. Those products still have a place, but for now the demand is for other offerings.
And with hospitality footfall under pressure, the supermarket is where plant-based habits are being formed and reinforced. Clear protein (and fibre) labelling, competitive pricing and a presence in the everyday staples section will help place brands in the best position for riding the next wave of growth.
Because trust me – when it comes to plant-based, the best is yet to come.
