The cost of cocoa to people, planet, and product is certainly driving frantic discussions about field sustainability upstream as well as chocolate reformulation downstream, but it is also pointing at a darker truth. Despite being one of the world’s most desired ingredient, cocoa is one of its most archaic crops; and whatever the industry does now the structural gap between supply and demand will not close anytime soon. As a result, confectioners will likely need to find new ways to complement cocoa rather than stretch it further.
More than 90% of cocoa farmers remain stuck in a low-input/low-output model, on plots of two to four hectares with average yields of less than 500 kg per hectare. At that level of productivity, incomes frequently fall beneath the World Bank’s extreme poverty threshold of $3 per day. The consequences are severe, chronic poverty at farm level fuelling systemic issues such as child labour and deforestation.
This endemic stagnation is reinforced by interlinked pressures. The cocoa swollen shoot virus is ravaging West African plantations, with an estimated 30% of acreage contaminated and no cure in sight. Trees – and farmers – are ageing, with insufficient replanting and limited generational renewal. Competing activities such as palm, rubber, and gold mining draw land and labour away from cocoa. In Ivory Coast and Ghana, market regulation further limits incentives through heavily taxed forward sales mechanisms and restrictions on agronomic interventions, including bans on self-pollinating clones and grafting. Climate change compounds the strain, with shifting rainfall patterns and temperature increases – specifically north of the West African cocoa belt and around the Congo Basin.
A 100,000 metric ton deficit
Against this backdrop, it is no surprise that cocoa supply is expanding slower than demand. Global supply is growing at roughly 0.8% per year – about 40,000 metric tons annually, but this net figure masks divergence. Ivory Coast and Ghana, which account for roughly half of global production, are on a structural downtrend of approximately 60,000 metric tons per year. Meanwhile, the rest of the world – led by Ecuador, followed by Brazil, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Peru – is adding around 100,000 metric tons annually. Liberalised markets and productivity gains are partially offsetting West Africa’s decline, but not decisively.
Demand, measured by global grindings, has historically grown at around 2.8% per year – approximately 140,000 metric tons annually. This trajectory is mostly underpinned by rising middle classes in the developing world as well as premiumisation in more mature markets. For instance, one should note that consumption per capita in the UK is around 40 times more than in India.
The arithmetic is clear: supply expands by about 40,000 metric tons per year, while demand requires closer to 140,000. The structural deficit is therefore roughly 100,000 metric tons annually.
That structural deficit is currently hidden by a large surplus, but this reflects demand destruction rather than supply ease. Chocolate consumption has declined by around 5% for two consecutive years, as record prices forced reformulation, shrinkflation, and consumer trade-down. High prices have rationed demand, creating the short-term illusion of equilibrium.
When consumption rebounds, certainly sooner rather than later in light of cocoa prices being back to their historical floor, the underlying gap will resurface. And further long-term, without a step-change in productivity, farmer livelihoods, and climate resilience, the market will continue to oscillate between spikes and crashes - a volatility masking more fundamental fragility.
The uncomfortable truth
In its current model cocoa struggles to scale sustainably. Expanding acreage often means encroaching on forests, raising farmer incomes without materially increasing productivity is an uphill battle, and relying on structurally underpaid smallholders to supply a growing global indulgence is not ethically acceptable.
If the world faces a structural deficit of 100,000 metric tons per year, the solution cannot rely on supply expansion alone. Yes, agriculture must improve – through replanting, better agronomy, disease management, regulatory reform, and ultimately much higher farmgate prices. But even under optimistic scenarios, cocoa’s biological and socio-economic constraints limit how quickly it can respond.
A solution to the cocoa crisis
Fermentation-based innovation is beginning to decouple chocolate’s sensory experience (flavour, shine, and snap) from full dependence on cocoa mass. Companies like Win-Win are transforming abundant cereals through proprietary fermentation processes, making it possible to create cocoa-free ingredients that replicate conventional chocolate while materially reducing environmental and social pressures.
The ambition is not to replace cocoa, but to add resilience. In a market where demand grows structurally faster than supply, diversification reduces volatility, eases pressure on fragile farming systems and expands the toolkit available to confectioners.
The future of chocolate will not be secured by nostalgia alone. It will depend on confronting cocoa realities, and broadening the definition of what sustainable indulgence can look like.
About the author
Raphaël Felenbok worked 10 years for Barry Callebaut (including extensive time in the field) and is doing pioneering work as an independent advisor since 2020.
He is a former expert at the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), founding member of the Swiss Platform for Sustainable Cocoa (SWISSCO), and current board member at Tony’s Chocolonely Foundation as well as alternative chocolate maker, Win-Win.
