The vehicle leasing firm said that despite a 20.9% increase in drivers between 2023 and 2024, the sector continues to struggle because of its ageing workforce and low pay.
More than 50% of drivers are aged over 50 putting many close to retirement, while monthly Google searches for ‘lorry driver jobs’ are at just 4,400 in the UK.
By 2029, the UK may need 200,000 more drivers to meet demand, with vacancies topping 20,000 in August 2024 alone according to Adzuna.
The recruitment platform also found that the average HGV driver salary is 13.9% below the national average.
Furthermore, Keith Hawes, director at Nationwide Vehicle Contracts, is confident that advances in autonomous HGV technology are unlikely to fill the skills gap.
“The development of autonomous driving depends on all vehicles being able to communicate seamlessly with one another,” Hawes said.
“When it comes to commercial transport, safety is absolutely critical. The idea of a 42-tonne lorry, complete with trailer and load, being driven autonomously on open roads still feels far off. In my view, we’re unlikely to see this as a mainstream reality before 2050.”
Delivery drivers are in also in demand, with Pegasus Couriers research finding that 30,000 more needed to meet the rising demand. The number of open vacancies for delivery drivers hit over 135,000 in April 2025, Adzuna data showed, pointing to a potential full shortage by 2037.
Major employers in the space include Just Eat, Yodel and Tesco, with high demand in food delivery, e-commerce and supermarket services.
To address the growing shortfall and potential decline, the industry must prioritise investment in training and development programmes to make the profession more appealing,” Hawes continued.
The findings have been collated in a new report on the Nationwide Vehicle Contracts website.
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