Whether it’s extreme weather impacting crops, or trade policy changes inhibiting supply routes, the UK’s food system – and the manufacturers and retailers that power it - is perhaps more vulnerable than ever.
If businesses are to protect food supply – as well as maintaining consumer confidence and loyalty – they must act now to embed resilience into every aspect of their supply chain.
A fragile global network
The food supply chain is more interconnected than ever before, providing global consumers a wider range of food products from different origins, but that interdependence has also rendered it vulnerable. Not long ago, wildfires in southern Europe destroyed thousands of hectares of olive groves, leading to a sharp spike in the cost of olive oil. Elsewhere, post-Brexit bureaucracy and border delays have disrupted the flow of fresh produce from the EU, making some imports more unreliable or less affordable.
And now, tariffs and trade policy changes, such as US tariffs on EU goods, threaten to impact global trade maps. Meanwhile, unpredictable weather patterns, from prolonged droughts to flash floods, are impacting crop yields from East Anglia to East Africa.
Put simply, the foundations of our food system are being tested. Businesses need to move beyond short-term fixes and start building longer-term resilience – to protect both themselves and their consumers.
Using data to forecast and plan ahead
Forecasting has always been a vital part of supply chain planning, but the tools at our disposal today can allow for much greater accuracy and foresight. Real-time data, artificial intelligence, and machine learning can help businesses move from reactive to proactive – which will be especially critical when it comes to future-proofing food supply chains from unpredictable impacts.
For example, a food manufacturer which is heavily reliant on fruit sourced from South America can analyse and predict shipping times, port delays and regional climate patterns, weeks in advance – and adjust sourcing plans accordingly.
But technology alone isn’t enough. It’s essential that the insights generated by forecasting tools are shared across departments to influence cross-supply chain decision-making. Procurement, operations, and logistics must be aligned and agile.
Diversifying sourcing
Over-reliance on any one supplier or geography can leave a business vulnerable. Many companies discovered this during the COVID-19 pandemic, when certain factories in Asia were forced to close or pause trading, for example, halting supply.
Similarly, manufacturers should consider the flexibility of ingredients. Reformulating products so that they can tolerate small variations in ingredients can allow greater agility should one component become scarce or a supplier run out of stock. For instance, a producer could adapt recipes to use seasonal vegetables sourced from closer to home for a particular product, cutting import dependency without compromising quality.
Of course, this type of diversification requires upfront work – auditing suppliers, testing alternatives, and investing in relationship management – but the payoff can be a supply chain that withstands more pressure.
Collaboration: shared challenge, shared solution
In the food industry, supply chains are only as strong as their weakest link. That’s why collaboration across the chain is crucial.
We’ve seen manufacturers and retailers work together to share warehousing space, coordinate transport routes, and pool data on demand trends. During the HGV driver shortage in 2021, for example, several food suppliers joined forces to consolidate deliveries to large retail chains, ensuring that shelves stayed stocked despite limited transport capacity.
It’s this kind of cross-sector coordination that will become increasingly important. Resilience can’t be built in isolation; openness, trust, and strategic partnerships can turn good supply chains into great ones.
Nearshoring: Bringing production closer to home
In response to global volatility, we’re seeing a growing interest in nearshoring – that is, bringing sourcing or production closer to the UK market. This can reduce transit times, avoid border disruption, and offer greater control over quality – in the right circumstances.
UK-based businesses should carefully consider whether nearshoring will work for their produce and help futureproof supply. While the costs may initially be higher, the move can cut lead times, boost flexibility, and support local farming – benefits that can quickly outweigh the extra spend. It can also mitigate financial disruption if natural disaster or political implications should strike.
That said, nearshoring isn’t suitable for all products. The UK climate, for instance, makes it difficult to grow tropical fruits or certain grains at scale. Labour availability, land use and environmental impact must also be considered, and nearshoring may not be feasible for some products.
Ultimately, nearshoring works best when combined with broader diversification strategies. It doesn’t replace global trade, but it does add an extra layer of security.
Building resilience into strategy rather than contingency
The reality is that food manufacturers will increasingly struggle to meet demand if they continue to rely on historical models. The world has changed – and so must our supply chains.
Those businesses that view resilience as a strategic imperative, rather than just a call for a contingency plan, will be better placed to thrive. This means using data not just to forecast, but to inform decision-making. It means investing in supplier relationships, diversifying intelligently, and working collaboratively with partners across the chain. Most importantly, it means planning for disruption.
Risks may be rising, but so too are the opportunities to innovate, adapt, and lead. With the right strategies in place, UK food manufacturers can turn today’s uncertainty into tomorrow’s advantage.
