HCC forecasts stable long-term outlook for Welsh beef
With tight meat supplies worldwide and the crisis in Ukraine adding to concerns over food security, HCC’s Monthly Market Bulletin has concluded that supplies onto the market may increase slightly in the next six months, but that thereafter steady production patterns will resume barring unforeseen events.
According to latest figures, the total number of cattle and calves on the ground in Britain stood at 8m head as of 1 July 2022 – an increase of 0.3% on the year, but 0.5% smaller than in July 2020. Beef cattle numbers recorded an increase of 0.7% to 5.2m head, whilst the dairy herd contracted by 0.6% – a continuation of the trend seen in recent years.
Strong production volumes
HCC said that the comparatively plentiful supply of cattle of 12-30 months of age largely destined for beef production would indicate strong production volumes in the short term. However, the census figures suggest that the contraction in both the beef and dairy breeding herds (due to increased throughput of older cattle) could act as a limiting factor on further growth in beef production.
HCC data Analyst Glesni Phillips said: “The new BCMS data shows that, although inflation in the wider economy is affecting both farmers and consumers at the moment, there is reason for optimism that we will see steady conditions on the production side in the longer term.
Cost of living
“Consumer demand is being affected by cost of living pressures, with more demand for cheaper cuts and mince. High input costs for farmers are also a factor in the projected rise in UK beef production in the short term, as some producers will look to avoid keeping additional stock over this winter.”
He said that the international demand is still “buoyant”, with UK beef exports having increased substantially during 2022.
“Production levels in many key competitor countries are not set to rise, therefore trends revealed in this recent data should give long-term confidence to farmers in the beef sector here in Wales,” Phillips added.
