The smart money is on intelligent design

That said, some areas such as printable electronics, nanostructures and biomaterials are moving at a rapid pace.

Alongside regulatory safeguards, affordability is perhaps the biggest barrier between new technologies and their widespread adoption. In fact, the one-eyed giant of cost control is likely to be the first hazard that any intrepid band of innovators will have to negotiate.

Active packaging is a case in point. Consultant at Pira International Dr Richard Roberts says: "Active systems tend to add cost, and there's not much incentive to put pence on a pack without substantial benefits."

The most common active systems scavenge oxygen from the pack or even the product. "A number of companies are already supplying scavengers that go into polyester films and can be activated, for instance, by strong UV light," says Roberts. Scavengers can also be applied to the inside of caps or even the walls of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles used to fill oxygen-sensitive products such as beer.

As retailers push for longer shelf-life, the use of scavenging systems which are integrated into packaging is likely to increase. For meat, minimising oxygen inside the pack can also make an all-important difference to the appearance of the product.

But for other shelf-life lengthening functions, cost soon enters the equation. Roberts cites the example of a plastic pharmaceuticals container from US polymer engineering company CSP Technologies. Here an inner layer incorporates a moisture-absorbing polymer matrix. "This adds to the cost. It makes sense where you have an expensive drug with a long shelf-life, but it is less applicable to food," he points out.

Biocides to combat pathogens

Biocides to combat pathogens comprise another potentially huge field within active packaging. But it is one where all in the supply chain are treading very hesitantly, and not only for reasons of cost. Consumer acceptance will also be key. And as with other fast-moving technologies, there is an inevitable reluctance to invest in today's solution, when tomorrow's may be not only cheaper but also more effective.

In the US, the Southwest Research Institute in Texas has been researching nanoscale time-release technologies which can be incorporated into packaging and triggered by UV light or moisture. According to the US MicroActive Corporation, which is working on commercial applications, chlorine dioxide is currently the best candidate for an active agent. Unlike other biocides, its antimicrobial properties can influence the entire pack contents, not only what is in contact with the packaging.

But at research level, many are exploring alternative agents including so-called bioactive antimicrobials. These use plant extracts and essential oils to inhibit the growth of pathogens. In one project, the French National Institute of Agricultural Research (INRA) is researching the use of biocoatings with antifungal properties.

Roberts at Pira believes that the newer research areas, where biocides are integrated at a nano- rather than a microscale, could signal a resurgence in active packaging. "It wouldn't surprise me if, within a decade, it was starting to take off," he says.

Among so-called 'intelligent' options, time temperature indicators (TTIs) are some of the most enthusiastically-researched technologies. In the UK, Timestrip has had some success developing first a label and more recently a fully-integrated sensor which indicates how long a pack has been open or in use. Last year, Nestlé incorporated the sensor into foodservice packs. Timestrip has since launched the iStrip temperature indicator which can be used alongside the timing device.

Six months ago, the Department of Trade and Industry initiated a three-year project to develop and assess enhanced TTI technology. The Faraday Packaging Partnership (FPP) explains that the system being investigated uses colour-change agents to indicate temperature variations over five days. Network manager Laurence Hogg explains: "There's a 'clock' in the sensor that records which temperatures were reached, and when. Crucially, at item level, the sensor will be printable. From a cost perspective, it has to be."

This type of sensor could provide valuable information for the consumer. For logistics companies and retailers, it would give vital insights into weak links in the chill chain.

Microwaveable barrier plastics

Other more visible innovations in food and drink packaging are likely to include the greater use of microwaveable barrier plastics for ambient, long-life products. According to Rexam, which now produces these packs in the UK, the sector is growing by 15% a year in North America - from an admittedly low base.

Cost need not be the overriding factor in a brand's choice of pack. Quoting the example of Heineken's shaped can in the beer sector, marketing director at Crown Bevcan Europe Caroline Archer-Reed says: "Packaging used to be just a functional part of the equation, but now it's seeing an increasing share of marketing spend."

One eye-catching technology which could hit shelves soon, Archer-Reed predicts, is the self-chilling can. "A lot of brands would love to have that. The systems work, but they're still very expensive because they require three different components," she explains.

Glass will be defending its markets against fierce competition with innovations of its own. John Parkes, director of quality at Rockware Glass, argues that in 15 or 20 years' time, all clear glass could be produced with a generic UV-blocking agent. Rockware already has the technology, saying that for certain products it can protect taste and shelf-life as well as colour.

Novelties which could help glass maintain a contemporary edge include dichroic materials. These cause the glass to change colour in natural and artificial light, Parkes explains.

Some of the most significant changes over the next decade and a half will be much less visible. Concerns about costs and finite resources will coincide to accelerate materials reduction. Here, innovators will be plotting a course between minimisation on the one hand and fitness-for-purpose on the other.

Lightweight packaging

But with sectors such as beverage cans having already seen years of lightweighting, where does this leave options for further minimisation up to 2020? The answer may not lie with materials or manufacturing. It will be due more to sophisticated modelling, improved databases and greater computing power for processes such as finite element analysis, says Mark Barthel, special adviser to the government-sponsored Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP). "The better the data, the better the match between the virtual and real worlds."

WRAP works with figures giving the weight and sales volumes of 3.5M consumer products. This can be used as a potent weapon in the battle to convince marketing and production departments that lightweighting makes sense.

Currently, the only plastics with a strong track record in both performance and recovery are PET and high density polyethylene (HDPE) bottles. Sensitivies to food contact applications remain high, as do post-consumer recyclate (PCR) prices. But PET bottles and packs are now being routinely produced by converters such as RPC and Sharp Interpack with varying proportions of PCR material.

The price of oil, success with closed-loop recycling and the debate about plastics and additives in the environment will be among the issues affecting perceptions of conventional polymers over the next decade or two. Technical sophistication, end-of-life solutions and probably political considerations could all influence takeup of biopolymers. If consumer and industry perceptions remain pretty much as they are now, probable outcomes include the continued growth of PET and the expansion of more technically advanced bioplastics in flexible and rigid packaging.

Finally, no discussion of tomorrow's food packaging would be complete without a mention of radio frequency identification (RFID). As Roberts at Pira points out, the technology has been talked about for years, but still struggles to get put on returnable containers. But there are real prospects for item-level 'tags' over the next five years, he says: "They are getting close to being printable. The necessary type of organic conducting polymer needs to conduct at a higher level. But I'm sure they'll also be linked into sensor technology to test the shelf-life of a pack."

Hogg at the FPP sums up many of these changes: "The trend is towards less packaging, and what there is will be more interactive." Whether 2020 will see packs which literally walk off the shelf is quite another matter.

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