New direction in shifting sands

A lot also depends on whether you are inclined to take a global or local perspective; whether you're in politics, business, science or social science; environmentalist, supporter of centralist controls, or free marketer.

Of course, these needn't be mutually exclusive and most of us juggle with a number of conflicting concerns. To complicate things further, any solutions to the huge problems of global instability - political, environmental and commercial - facing us as human beings are not going to be simple: not black and white, but degrees of grey.

It's a conundrum. We want better lives for ourselves and our kids, but we are wracked with guilt about the cost to the planet and to the poor of striving to improve our own lives. For some environmentalists, such as Dr Mayer Hillman at the Policy Studies Institute, 'carbon rationing' and 'contraction and convergence' with poorer countries - rather than unbridled consumerism - is the only way of averting the environmental armageddon that stares us in the face. It has also moved from the green fringe into mainstream politics since its reported consideration by environment secretary David Miliband.

In contrast, capitalists place their faith in market forces coming to our rescue; while engineers and scientists cleave to more technological solutions.

Eminent food scientist professor Ralph Blanchfield, a past president of the Institute of Food Science and Technology, says: "More than ever in an era of globalisation the UK food industry cannot isolate itself from the rest of the world ... Every new (and every old) technology that can produce benefits also has problems. Instead of using real or imaginary problems as an excuse for rejecting the potential benefits, we should address and solve any real problems. Science is society's tool for doing that. Developing sciences and technologies already in the pipeline (genetic modification, nanotechnology, genomics, nutrigenomics, proteomics) and others we cannot yet envisage, offer great future benefits not only for UK industry and consumers but for the many less fortunate elsewhere in the world."

Technological solutions

On the manufacturing side of scientific and technological developments, it's all about novel ingredients and smart interactive packaging, which is set to take off; manufacturing flexibility, automation and efficiency. Internet shopping and home delivery is also predicted to explode. However, retail outlets will still exist. They'll just be different. For example, Waitrose's md Steven Esom says: "By 2020 we will have cash-less, checkout-less supermarkets."

Professor David Hughes, emeritus professor of food marketing at Imperial College London, believes the way we shop will be very different indeed: "We shall be watching clips of Friday evening supermarket shopping and, roaring with laughter, ask 'why on earth did we do that?', he suggests. "Thank the Lord, high technological solutions will remove the drudge of in-home inventory management of basics."

Barclay's relationship director for food, drink and packaging, John Laud, adds: "Food manufacturers will all have world class supply chain management skills that they use to implement the new technologies needed to monitor individual customer needs and desires and deliver products that satisfy."

Lean supply chain guru and chairman of the Lean Enterprise Academy, professor Daniel Jones, goes even further: "Smart consumers will be sharing their plans with retail solution providers who will source products and services for them and who will manage the logistics to the home, the office or the local store pick-up point. Food producers will be making every product every day in line with demand and supply chains for almost every product will be measured in hours and days rather than weeks, with a much lower carbon footprint."

Clearly the government's drive for a more "sustainable" food chain is gaining acceptance across most quarters of the industry. Some, however, such as the Provision Trade Federation's director general Clare Cheney fear environmental concerns, which lead to greater localisation of food supply, could do serious damage to many existing food suppliers: "Importers would be encouraged to find more sustainable modes of transport as they did in the early 20th century relying on major docks around the UK as entry points."

By 2020 "we will have come to terms with what sustainability means and [have] made the changes required to achieve it," says Maurice McCartney, director of the British Meat Processing Association."Sustainability will require profitable farming and manufacturing businesses, big and small, with the right people, resources and confidence to invest and innovate." While admitting his is a wish rather than a prediction, McCartney adds: "To achieve this, manufacturers will need mature, long-term trading relationships with their customers based on trust, transparency and fair negotiation."

McCartney's view is supported by food factory contractor Clegg Food Projects' md Steve Giltrap, who says, by 2020: "Smaller farm-based processing facilities [will] have popped up all over the UK, sourcing product locally, supplying local outlets and taking advantage of improvements in bio-fuel technology to grow their own energy as well as raw materials." Such renewable technology could also help to meet demand for "out of season" produce from within the UK, he adds.

But the big multiple retailers are unlikely to stand still in this changing world. While the likes of Sainsbury and Tesco have already altered their strategies to grow estates of smaller urban convenience stores, they are likely to target local farmers markets as their popularity grows, says Giltrap. This will inevitably generate protests from smaller operators about the multiples' "anti-competitive pricing and quasi-monopoly activity", he adds. So, no change there then!

For some, such as Tim Lang, Professor of Food Policy at City University, the options that confront us are stark. In one scenario Lang envisages an extreme division between the rich "fatland food world" in countries such as Britain and the poor elsewhere. In his dystopian vision, he adds: "Food manufacturers have seen off the obesity challenge by offering a few niche products and won the argument that consumers are to blame for faulty feeding."

Sustainability ahead of profits?

However, we could step back from this "unsavoury prospect" and put global sustainability ahead of profits, says Lang. "In this scenario, supermarkets stock less; shops have re-localised so that we can bike or walk to them. There is a renaissance of farming." And, "to work on a farm is seen as a good career". This world according to Lang would be forced upon manufacturers by the simple economics of oil prices hitting $100 a barrel.

Although political pressure is forcing supermarkets to move some way down this road as they stock more local produce, most retailers doubt the genie of year-round availability can ever be put back in its bottle. That is, unless taxes are introduced to take account of the true environmental costs of such global produce. Lang is sure the public can be convinced to accept that the price of food must rise to reflect "its full environmental and health costs".

In direct opposition to this view is big business. Multiple retailers, in particular, support the view that informed consumer choice rather than legislation is more likely to drive positive behavioural changes as far as health and the environment are concerned.

When asked for his predictions for 2020 at the IGD annual convention last year, Tesco commercial and trading director Richard Brasher, replied: "By 2020 UK farming will be stronger than it is today." He is not alone in this view. Paul Wilkinson, chairman of Big Bear, former chairman of RHM and chairman of Improve, the food and drink sector skills council, says: "UK farming will see a renaissance as food security and supplies start to take priority ... Transporting food long distances will be both uncommercial and unacceptable. Cheap labour will have disappeared, and when combined with the costs of transportation, will ensure a flourishing UK production base."

So there you have it. Despite the naysayers and profits of doom, there appears to be hope for the UK food industry yet. But it has to change to survive and embrace our changing world, our changing priorities and our changing lifestyles.

The last word should probably go to Blanchfield: "It would be easy to paint a pessimistic picture of the food industry in 2020, what with drought, floods and other consequences of climate change; likely development of economic and/or legislative restrictions on imports and exports to minimise carbon emissions; drastic depletion of fish stocks; and the no doubt continued efforts of the 'usual suspects' (whether from ideological or commercial motives) to scare the public into rejecting the benefits made possible by science and technology developments.

"However, I go along with Antoine de Saint-Exupery who wrote: 'As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it' (The Wisdom of the Sands, 1948)."

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